New info just in, but does any of this tally?

7 06 2009
Improbable but... could Jim overtake Diane?

Improbable but... could Jim overtake Diane?

TALLYBALLS

I know, I know. Tallies are just a snapshot… nothing absolute… merely indicative etc. I accept they are for political science what weather vanes and bird flight were for pre-satellite meteorologists. Tallies give you a sense of things if not a detailed map of how it’s all shaking out.

So (sharp in-take of breath), with all the usual health warnings attached, the TUV performed significantly well (12%). I hear Nicholson is snapping up a good chunk of No1s, and that the DUP and UUP are level (on c.16%).

According to what I hear:

  • The UUP lead in Lagan Valley, Upper Bann, South Down, North Down, FST, South Belfast, Newry & Armagh and West Tyrone.
  • The DUP lead in East Londonderry, North Belfast and (just about) East Belfast.
  • TUV lead in North Antrim and Mid Ulster.
  • Strangford, South Antrim and East Antrim too close to call.

Don’t ask me for sharp metrics, tallies & exit polls are often just held together by cobwebs and magic. But the sources of this info are credible/informed – but are they right? How does that sound?

Information am also picking up suggests that (in answer to my last post) SDLP people are privately accepting they won’t win a seat. Is this the experience of others?

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2 responses

7 06 2009
Shuffling Geisha

Lots of tallies circulating, so so much fun. Probably none individually can be taken seriously but the general consensus is the DUP are dropping around 12 per cent, UUP dropping 1 per cent, TUV sitting just behind UUP having taken DUP 12 per cent.

Probably going to be de brun, dodds and nicholson though nicholson all depends on where allister’s transfers go.

7 06 2009
The Baron

Bob, as a former comrade in the Berlin Bunker, can you believe it? If this is pulled off to the extent that it appears it might be, it looks like my prophet of doom routine might be coming to an end?

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