Gerry Moriarty doesn’t read bobballs: official

26 01 2010

Gerry Moriarty in today’s Irish Times reports that Trevor Ringland is a UUP nominee for the UCUNF candidacy in East Belfast. Gerry clearly doesn’t read ol’ bobballs and that makes me sad.

Nevertheless it almost goes without saying that bobballs readers are a very, very, very select and influential elite…

PS. thanks for the socks mam!

PPS. Oh, and Ger didn’t mention that Tim Lemon was the second nominee from that EB selection meeting. While both go through on equal terms, Tim – a candidate in 2001 and a former director of elections for the UUP – did receive more support than Trevor on the evening. Worth mentioning.

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11 responses

26 01 2010
Ivor Whitten

UZ R LEET hehehehehe

29 01 2010
Gerry Moriarty’s Big Links! « Bobballs!

[…] Moriarty’s Big Links! 29 01 2010 Here’s a round up of some of the blogs which Gerry Moriarty won’t be reading this […]

29 01 2010
Anon

Lemon had a massive majority (3:1) but the party will try and impose Ringland.

Same in SB, where Michael Henderson walloped the other candidate out of sight, but because she’s “a lovely girl”, MH will be pushed aside (see threads passim).

Roll on unity is all I can say and spare us these jokers who appear out of nowhere and think they are entitled to be MPs!

29 01 2010
inthemidst

Democracy, what local constituency associations wants … sure these things are never considered by the leadership, reminds me of 2007 when the leadership decided certain constituencies must run three candidates to “maximise the vote” – yeah maximise the vote the and minimise the number of MLAs fucking returned.

2 02 2010
bobballs

i remember that one – i know that the UUP’s top people had a detailed breakdown of quotas etc for each constituency and (correct) recommendations on the numbers of the candidates that should be selected. It was a very detailed piece of work, which was largely ignored. The information was there – but it was often set aside in favour of placating individuals / branches / associations.

29 01 2010
Anon

ITM

Absolutely agree. South Belfast is the prime example. There were exactly 3 Unionist quotos, divided amongst 6 pro-Union candidates. We need to get our acts together, and if it means working together with people we didn’t get on with previously, so be it. I don’t want South Belfast going the same way as FST – once nationalists dig in, its hard to shift them.

29 01 2010
Anon

Actually 7 pro-Union candidates – don’t forget the colussus that is Roger Lomas!

30 01 2010
Bill White

Anon & others

Just a mathematical but important point.

You’re correct i.e. there were exactly 3 Unionist quotas spread among seven pro-Union candidates at the last Assembly election in South Belfast.

However, just because you get three quotas, that doesn’t mean you should automatically get 3 candidates elected. The higher the No. of candidates you aim for getting elected, and the higher the No. of pro-Union candidates running, then the higher the ‘buffer’ i.e. extra 1st pref. votes you need, in order to ensure you achieve the target No. of people elected.

Basically the Maths show: for 1 candidate elected – you need 1.1 Quotas of 1st pref. votes among all the candidate standing, to get 2 candidates elected you need 2.2 Quota’s, to get 3 candidates elected you need 3.4 Quotas etc… This is because of ‘transfer leakage’ within the votes when the transferring occurs e.g. no 2nd candidate shown, wrong transfers etc. etc.

In terms of South Belfast at the Assembly election in 2007 it wouldn’t have made any difference if the UUP had run only two candidates. If you take all of Bobby Stokers 1st pref. vote, and allocate it in total to Esmond Birnie, Esmond would still have not got elected as Anna Lo polled just too good a 1st pref. vote, and was too far ahead on the first count.

31 01 2010
Anon

Bill

And how many Unionist voters are turned off by a feeling that the vote being shredded makes victory impossible? They see Unionists fighting each other and don’t go to vote.

31 01 2010
Bill White

Anon

I totally agree with what you say, but that’s an entirely different point.

If the UUP had run only 2 candidates in 2007, then it’s a valid view that we could have run a more cohesive and effective campaign, and therefore, yes, we probably would have managed to get more Unionist voters out to vote.

I was only giving a mathematical analysis of the situation as it occurred. Your point is an opinion, which can’t have a mathematical analysis and/or be proven either way – or at least it would be very difficult to do this analysis in an objective way. However, I agree with what you say.

9 02 2010
Gerry Moriarty’s Big Links! « Bobballs!

[…] Moriarty’s Big Links! 9 02 2010 Here’s a round up of some of the blogs which Gerry Moriarty won’t be reading this […]

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