Is this the ‘Nesbitt for Wesminster’ facebook group?

A few days ago, Delphic Bobballs (Balls passim!) produced a traditional and mysterious prophecy ancient oracle-stylee. My barely decipherable augury stated:

Quite right UUP re. speedy selections. About time. Actually, I’ve noticed that Mike Nesbitt has been receiving a few new pals on facebook – who happen to be Ulster Unionists!! I wonder do they have a reason to be liking him more than usual?

Perplexing and far-sighted stuff eh! Well so it is proving, because Mike Nesbitt is really going into overdrive looking for facebook friends. Now I know January is a depressing month (it depressed me, I turned 36) but can this explain the insatiable demand for new mates?

Mike has invited me and lots more people I know to be his bezzie mate. He’s clearly making his way through individual networks… in order to create the ‘Nesbitt for Westminster’ facebook group??

I will goddamn eat my crystal ball if I’m not on the money this time. (I’m feeling better about this than my controversial and costly prediction for the Scotland-France game. Sorry kids! Erm… home-schooling means we love you the most!)

Gerry Moriarty’s Big Links!

Here’s a round up of some of the blogs which Gerry Moriarty won’t be reading this week:

• Alan in Belfast demands transparency dammit! This outraged ratepayer won’t take ‘In committee’ for an answer…
• You’d have thought that finding ways to supply Burkean interpretations on modern political history would, strangely, get boring. Nope. Burke’s Corner, strangely, does it again! This post is exactly why I nominated this dork as ‘best specialist blog’ for the Irish Blog Awards. I mean, what a total (albeit clever) dork!
• Devenport thinks he knows what the ‘clever device’ is (no, it’s not Burke’s Corner). He should have mentioned it to Nolan who spend his entire show this morning begging someone in NI to tell him what it was. Well, that’s an hour and a half I’ll never get back.
• For Mr Stuart Bailie I confess man-crush. And posts like this are why…
• And finally, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this year’s Pressies. Someone in work was promoting a brand of cheese. They came up with the press release header: ‘Things can only get cheddar!‘ One for ‘best headline category‘? No Kelly, that get’s filed in the ‘most regrettable public utterance’ category. Oh yes.

NI politics? Ah just stop the world, I want off…

Something went unreported (understandably) this week, and yet it’s amazing.

Thursday. Before the all that naff theatrical hoopla about agreements, and that history-handy hyperbole (@ 1009), and the usual guff about our children’s children etc…

Yes, before all that, and while we all stared into the depths of the abyss yet again, the Northern Ireland Assembly hosted  the International Parliamentary Conference on Peacebuilding. It’s subject matter – ‘Tackling State Fragility’.

I kid you not. The Northern Ireland Assembly, this Northern Ireland Assembly which progressed no Executive business for 160-odd days, and which has been the institutional watchword for dysfunction and disharmony, somehow allowed this conference to go ahead. We, apparently, are a case study in tackling fragility.

So:

• when 14 of the DUP’s Assembly Group rejected the deal on Monday and Robinson’s leadership hung by a thread, this conference was coming.
• when the PM and Taoiseach imposed deadlines last week, tried to guillotine the talks and were all but left standing on the runway, this conference was coming.
• when Peter Robinson stepped down from the FM job to address allegations that he’s breached the Ministerial code, this conference was coming.
• when Peter Robinson’s wife was revealed to have had an affair with someone young enough to be her grandson and the police began an investigation, this conference was coming.

And these are just four events of the many that occured in the past few weeks (cast your mind back to some of the other stuff eg. Denis Donaldson; Northern Bank; Robert McCartney) . This assembly has been dysfunctional and chaotic for months. Look at what has happened here in education. Look at what she has done. And behind all of that, this conference was coming.

This is how Willie Hay welcomed delegates:

“Northern Ireland’s experience shows the importance of robust parliamentary structures and mechanisms which strengthen democracy and engage the people in creating a better future for all . This conference will give delegates the opportunity to examine and discuss many of the lessons learnt in Northern Ireland. There will be participation and input by parliamentarians, the media and members of civil society, all of whom will be able to contribute their experiences and views of the journey that our community has travelled, as well as the opportunities and challenges that still remain.”

The press release helpfully adds:

A cross-party panel of MLAs will share their individual and party experiences of the Northern Ireland peace process and the ongoing work to build public confidence in the political system.

Public confidence? Has anyone heard the Nolan Show recently / read the newspapers / talked to other human beings here? This stuff is beyond satire. This is where you bite your lip to check you’re still awake. Total piffle.

Check out the headline of the press release again:

INTERNATIONAL PARLIAMENTARY CONFERENCE ON PEACEBUILDING LOOKS AT NORTHERN IRELAND AS A CASE STUDY

A case study of what? How not to…etc??

I’m annoyed. Kidding ourselves is one thing, but bringing statesmen from overseas and kidding them too is just fraudulent behaviour. It’s an artless con job.

Sure, I will accept that to bring such disparate opinions to an Executive table requires a certain narrative fiction, a hyper-extension of credible truth, but Willie Hay and this bloody conference has snapped that beyond toleration. Look at this again:

Northern Ireland’s experience shows the importance of robust parliamentary structures and mechanisms which strengthen democracy and engage the people in creating a better future for all.

How could that press release be issued when it was? How could the conference be held here when it was? How could this fraud take place?  How can anyone think we’re all so f*****g stupid as to belief this?

I believe in devolution, but not in a Kafkaesque form of government that’s happy to trade on untruth and elevate its corporate defence ahead of democratic function. There’s no way Jim Allistair will persuade me to vote TUV, but another conference and assorted bollocks like that just might.

Tackling State Fragility? Stop treating me like I’m a fool. Ah heck… stop the world, I’ve had enough, I want off.

PS. I’d like to know who attended and what they learned. What were our delegates able to tell world statesmen about tackling fragility? What was our pitch? If we are a case study, what does it say?

Gaffe alert: SDLP councillor would pee on Union flag!

SDLP councillor Danny O’Connor. Well, he’s a bit of a card. And he’s committed a little bit of a gaffe this morning. 

A guy on Facebook has posted up a photo of his comedy toilet seat with Union Jack motif.  

The offensive toilet seat

Meh. Fair enough. But SDLP councillor, and former Mayor of  Larne, Danny O’Connor thinks this must be confronted. He replies: 

I wouldn’t lift the lid to p 

Whay hey! SDLP councillor (and possible Westminster candidate for East Antrim again maybe?) would pish on the Union flag. Gags like that always go down well with the ol’ community relations Danny.

 

He went on to insist that his gaffe was in fact a deftly crafted political statement:

It is not about insulting the flag per se,it is about the Little Englander mentaliy that would go so far as to have it on their toilet.

So this isn’t a comedy toilet seat. Not for Danny. This toilet seat represents everything that’s wrong in Northern Ireland. When the suggestion was made that he was being just a tiny bit racist, Danny added:

Yes,I dont believe it is racist,it is it is about a mindset,it is the same mindset that paints kerbstones red white and blue,and it is that mindset I am against,not the flag,as I stated earlier,and it is not meant to cause offence to you or anybody else,to have the flag on a toilet seat is not something I would expect from anyone other than a football hooligan.

Hear, hear Danny!

So when Danny said he would pee on the Union flag he was IN FACT challenging mindsets and exposing the very worst aspects of NI society. Good on yer Dan!

If I’m following the logic correctly, to recap:

• Saying you’d pish on a national flag in a public forum = not offensive.
• Installing comedy toilet seat in privacy of own home = very offensive.

Mmmm… not sure about that.

All right, all right. Let’s keep it in context. Banter is fine, but for a public rep to suggest he’d happily pish on the Union flag is a little impolitic / dumb / insensitive.

While I’ve never actually met Danny, I became friends with him on facebook chiefly because I’d heard of his great reputation for hard work and in building partnerships in his area. In general, known by all to be a decent spud. Those qualities remain, but why make dumb comments like this? Silly rabbit.

Empey tells DUP: ‘You’re hateful, and I love that about you!’

So the UUP Executive met last night. Five things happened: 

1. Empey confirmed there’s to be no merger with the DUPs (we hate those guys):

Empey said:

I can categorically say that rumours of a merger with the DUP are untrue. No deal has been agreed and no formal link with the party has been made.

And:

The UUP notes that for most of its existence the DUP was splitting and demoralising the unionist electorate in general and our party in particular.

2. Empey admitted to liking a link up with the DUPs for the Assembly election (we love those guys):

Discussions had taken place with the DUP in relation to the proposed upcoming Assembly election but no commitments were made. The code used is they discussed ‘how to best secure the future of political institutions in Northern Ireland’; which of course means they discussed ‘doing everything under the sun to make sure Martin doesn’t emerge as FM’.

Could the UUP & DUP yet form a pact for the Assembly election? Well, maybe, because… …

3. The UUP Executive made an Assembly election slightly more likely:

The Executive Committee of the Ulster Unionist Party support the policy that Policing and Justice should not be devolved in the present context of a dysfunctional Stormont Executive.

There can be no way the UUP will be allowed to mess around with (what Durkan describes as) ‘the architecture of the agreement’. As P&J would likely be devolved into the present context, how could Robinson get his community confidence without UUP support? Go go snap Assembly election…

4. Empey confirmed the link up with the Tory Party for the Westminster election:

 Empey told his Executive (and those bloody bloggers!):

In light of recent press commentary and blogging sources I wish to stress that we are 100 per cent committed to our relationship with the Conservative Party. It is Party policy – it has been agreed by this Executive and it is something that the Ulster Unionist Party is very proud of. 

It was agreed that the Joint Committee would resolve to put candidates forward as soon as possible given the ongoing fluid situation over policing and justice.

5. And a third unanimous vote supporting the Tory link means…

The end of Sylvia Hermon as a UUP member. What now Sylvia? Well, I think Jesus put it best when he said: ‘Get up, pick up your mat and walk.’

PS. Quite right UUP re. speedy selections. About time. Actually, I’ve noticed that Mike Nesbitt has been receiving a few new pals on facebook – who happen to be Ulster Unionists!! I wonder do they have a reason to be liking him more than usual? 

PPS. Presumably the DUP will now restart candidate selections for Westminster. Interested to see who emerges from that…

There’s Wally… get him!

DUP MLA Jeffrey ‘Wally‘ Donaldson was on GMU this morning (listen in from 1hr 55mins) denying that there was a ballot of the DUP Assembly Group. He completely denies that there were 14 MLAs who rejected a P&J deal. He claims the entire Assembly Group is utterly unanimous and totally united.

This is in conflict with everything the media (and even your super-soaraway bobballs) is hearing. Putting a spin on something is one thing, but hasn’t Donaldson gone far beyond that? 

Poor Jeffrey, I’ve got a feeling he’s about to disappear again…

If not Peter, then who?

Wish I had to the time to blog this before now, but if only to confirm what others are saying… here goes:

I heard that the size of the revolt in the DUP Assembly Group numbered at least 11 MLAs. That roundly ties in with the 14 MLAs / 40% split which the BBC reported.

But if we say that a third of the DUP Assembly Group is opposed to the deal, can we suppose that the remaining two-thirds are firmly in the Robinson camp? I’m not so sure we can.

Outside those who strongly oppose the devolution of P&J, there are those who are not completely convinced that this particular deal is right (how did bilingualism become part of a policing agreement?). But there are those who are now uncertain about committing their political futures to a Robinson-led deal.

If Robinson does not survive far past a P&J deal, the legacy of his negotiations could be several wrecked political careers. In addition, his surety of touch and trustworthiness have been compromised by recent events / Spotlight etc. So how many of the remaining two-thirds are actually ‘in’ the Robinson camp?

Failing to carry the assembly group – a taint on his authority – could be the channel for other feelings to emerge… many in the grassroots are unhappy with the sharp treatment of the Doc and (to a lesser extent) Baby Doc. And yet Robinson lingers on. Perhaps the crucial bedrock of support within the party is evaporating for Robinson – time is not on his side and he is expending it trying to bring this assembly group along with him. The longer this goes on the greater these doubts and questions over his leadership become.

For his part, I hear that Robinson is becoming ever more reliant on a small coterie of advisors. Bunker mentality from a Unionist leader with Prime Ministers heaping pressure on to do the deal? We’ve been here before. That 40% + figure does make the DUP Assembly Group an attractive mirror image of the Ulster Unionist Council…

Outside of Stormont, Jim Allister’s rhetoric many not attract many new DUP recruits but I hear that it is demoralising DUP people (pricking the conscience) and adding to the sense of doubt about strategic direction in all of this. Apparently a number of MPs are worried that they could face being hit at the polls for going along with the devolution project.

Robinson really could have gone in that mini-uprising. For a short period around 5pm on Monday, it looked like a possibility. But perhaps the question of ‘who else will lead’ sustains the Robinson leadership more than anything else right now. Who could take over? And of those who could, who would want to?

m not sure about dividing it up in this way. Like the BBC, I hear that around a third of the DUP Assembly Group is opposed to the deal. But that is not to say that the remaining two thirds and firmly in the Robinson camp.

Outside those who strongly oppose the deal, there are those who are not persuaded that the deal is right. But there are those who are now uncertain about committing their political futures to a Robinson-led deal. If Robinson does not survive far past a P&J deal, the legacy of his negotiations could be several wrecked political careers.

I hear from inside the DUP that hard core opposition to the deal is one part of it (that is the 11 MLAs), but outside there are many who are unwilling to fully commit to Robinson. His surety of touch and trustworthiness have been compromised by recent events. How many of the remaining two thirds are actually ‘in’ the Robinson camp?

Failing to carry the assembly group – a taint on his authority – could be the channel for other feelings to emerge… many in the grassroots are unhappy with the treatment of the Doc and Baby Doc. And yet Robinson lingers on. Perhaps the crucial bedrock of support within the party is not there for Robinson – and the more time he expends trying to bring this assembly group along with him, the greater these doubts and questions become.

A number of MPs are worried that they could face being hit at the polls for going along with the devolution project. I hear that Jim Allister’s rhetoric many not attract many new recruits but it is demoralising DUP people and adding to the sense of doubt about strategic direction in all of this.

Robinson could have gone in that mini-uprising. For a short period around 5pm, it looked like a strong possibility. But perhaps the question of ‘who else will lead’ sustains the Robinson leadership more than anything else.

The Trimbles wade in… and now I’m really confused

Daphne Trimble, UUP nominee for selection in Lagan Valley, has quite deliberately posted the following on facebook:

Daphne Trimble David has just posted on his website http://www.davidtrimble.org/latestnews_kane.htm
an email correspondence that he had with Alex Kane in November discussing devolution, UCUNF etc. In light of recent happenings he considers that people might find it an interesting exchange.

She is of course referring to Alex Kane’s resignation as Director of Comms for the UUP.

Alex presented his resignation letter to the Party leadership on Sunday then this article appeared in Monday’s News Letter. Perhaps the proximity of the resignation and the article makes it easy to consider that Alex simply resigned in response to unity talks with the DUP. Well, maybe, but I don’t think that’s the entire story.

Time for a rumour: DUP says no deal!

The justice deal was due to be announced @ 3pm but was then put back to 5pm at the earliest. And now I hear a meeting of senior DUP figures in Stormont has rejected the deal.

The Adams interview this morning which referred to the deal being a ‘staging’ post (to a united Ireland??) has caused problems.

An informed observer also tells me that at one stage the DUP were considering taking a secret ballot on the deal… and if Robbo lost that ballot then he would step down! I don’t know if such a ballot has taken place. But if the rumour of rejection is correct, then I suspect it might mean curtains for Robbo irrespective.

There’s Wally!

Jeffrey Donaldson in the Assembly Chamber earlier today

Congratulations to the NI Assembly and viewers of Stormont Live!! You all found Jeffrey ‘Wally’ Donaldson this afternoon and now qualify for an adorable Bobballs Carriage Clock. High fives population of Northern Ireland!

I hear that Wally was seen in the Assembly chamber this afternoon asking an oral question of the DoE Minister. I’ll be posting up fuller details on that amazing, earth-shattering political contribution as soon as Hansard allows me.

Anything to say on the P&J deal that’s being cobbled together right now? Anything at all? Just a word? No? Nothing? All right, in your own time big guy…!

PS. But my goodness Wally – you really foxed us there chum! Listen, you just bugger off again for a week or two – we’ll all try to find you again when we’re ready…

PPS. The Bobballs Finance Department now tells me that everyone who qualified for a Bobballs Carriage Clock has since been disqualified from receiving a Bobballs Carriage Clock. Bureaucrats, eh?

PPPS. Actually, bit of a stroke of luck that - supplying ornamental clocks to the population of Northern Ireland could have completely bankrupted us! Go, go crazy bureaucracy!!